Canadian Dollar Forecast for 2018 and 2019
| Bank Currency Forecast | 2018 US dollar and Canadian dollar Forecast Q2 |
2018 US dollar and Canadian dollar Forecast Q3 |
| Scotia Bank | 1.27* | 1.26* |
| RBC Bank | 1.30* | 1.27* |
| BMO Bank | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| CIBC Bank | 1.30 | 1.32 |
| TD Bank | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| National Bank | 1.21 | 1.24 |
*Figures based on January 2018 numbers
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If you are looking for the Canadian dollar forecast for tomorrow or next week or the Canadian dollar forecast for next month or the Canadian dollar forecast next year, you can use the table above as a proxy as this is the closest data we have for that time period.
Below are some links to the Canadian dollar forecast by the Canadian financial institutions. The financial institutions update their forecasts regularly, so you need to check regularly to see their latest update.
Forecasts
Scotia Bank Canadian Dollar Forecast
http://www.scotiafx.com/Chart_Feed/FXForecast.pdf
RBC Canadian Dollar Forecast
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/financial-markets/rates.pdf
TD Bank Canadian Dollar Forecast
http://www.td.com/economics/analysis/forecasts/forecasts.jsp
BMO Canadian Dollar Forecast
http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/forecast/ca/cdamodel.pdf
CIBC Canadian Dollar Forecast
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/rates.pdf
National Bank Canadian Dollar Forecast
http://www.nbc.ca/bnc/files/bncpdf/en/2/Forex_E.pdf
Desjardins Canadian Dollar Forecast
https://www.desjardins.com/ca/about-us/economic-studies/forecasts/fx-forecasts/
Knightsbridge Foreign Exchange
http://knightsbridgefx.com/blog/
There are a number of factors that many people look at that they believe influence the forecast of the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian dollar is often called a petro currency. This is because many believe it moves in tandem at times with the price of oil. As oil rises, the Canadian dollar can rise. When oil falls, the Canadian dollar can fall. Therefore, it is also important to look at the oil price forecast when considering the Canadian dollar forecast.
Canadian and US equity markets impacting the Canadian dollar forecast
The Canadian dollar is often called a risk-on currency, which means that when risk appetite in the world is increasing, the Canadian dollar generally rises. In a recession, the US dollar generally rises as it is a safe haven currency. Many people have noticed that when the equity markets for Canada and the US rise, the Canadian dollar also rises a bit. This can imply that at times, there is some correlation between the equity markets in Canada and the USA and the Canadian dollar forecast.
Interest rates and the impact on the Canadian dollar forecast
Recently, interest rates in Canada have had a large impact on the forecast of the Canadian dollar. US interest rates also matter. Essentially, it is the interest rate differential (between Canadian interest rates and US interest rates) that impacts the Canadian dollar. If Canadian interest rates are moving higher or are expected to move higher, this could imply that more people will move money in to Canada to take advantage of the higher interest rates in Canada. If US interest rates are expected to rise, then it could be likely people will move money out of Canada and in to the USA. Higher interest rates could lead to a higher currency. This is why it is important to consider interest rates when looking at the Canadian dollar forecast.
Quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve or stimulus in Canada is typically considered a form of reducing interest rates to stimulate the economy. This can often have a negative effect on the home currency as rates move lower, the flow of funds will move towards the higher yielding currency.
Commodity prices and its impact on the Canadian dollar forecast
Canada is rich in commodities. Therefore as commodity prices go up, generally it is believed that the value of Canadian assets will go up and also businesses in Canada that mine these commodities will make more profits. More profits leads to a stronger GDP in Canada and this bodes well for investment and strength of the economy. Generally a strong economy is good for the Canadian dollar. Therefore, the commodity forecast is important to look at when considering the Canadian dollar forecast.
China’s growth and the Canadian dollar forecast
As the paragraph above mentioned and discussed commodities. As china grows, their requirement for commodities will continue to grow. This bodes well for Canada as demand in China will essentially mean they need to buy more commodities to grow. Chinese growth should assist the rise in the Canadian dollar.
Economic growth and the Canadian dollar forecast
The performance of an economy does impact the currency. As economic data releases in Canada surprise to the upside, the Canadian dollar should do well. If Canada is employing more people, creating more jobs, increasing its GDP, and exporting more, this typically bodes well for the Canadian dollar. The strength of an economy makes people want to invest in Canada and will attract flows of funds in to Canada. It also helps the currency become more in demand.
There are many other factors that can impact the Canadian dollar forecast. Also, the factors mentioned above can change in any time and just because it was a factor at one point in time in the past does not mean it will be a factor in the future. Do not use the information on this website as advice or investment advice or trading advice.
Employment Rate and the Canadian Dollar Forecast
When jobs data numbers are reported, they are closely followed by the market. A positive jobs data report, typically indicates the country is booming or growing, and this means that GDP is generally going to increase as well. The better the job situation in a country, the more likely the currency will be favored in some cases.
Bank Stability and the Canadian dollar forecast
The stability of the banking system provides certainty to those investing in the region. Political and financial institution instability can cause many investors to leave a country and move to a country that is more stable. This movement of funds creates attraction of flows of funds in to a currency that has a more stable environment. This is often why emerging markets have issues with their currencies and why the US dollar is always called a safe haven currency, because people trust the banking system and government.
Other Factors
There are a number of other factors that can influence the currency. This often has to do with supply and demand and the forces that impact supply and demand.
Other Resources
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